Diplomatic crisis in Middle East disrupts regional security, political balance

BEIJING, June 6 (Xinhua) — Saudi Arabia and its allies have severed diplomatic ties with Qatar in an escalation of power struggle in the Middle East which endangers the region’s political balance and hinders global efforts to end conflicts in the region.

Observers said cracks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that dominates regional affairs after 2011 may lead to more intense struggle between Shiite and Sunni powers and weaken counter-terrorism operations.

SEVERED TIES

Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Yemen and the Maldives followed Saudi Arabia on Monday to broke off ties with Qatar. Riyadh accused it of supporting extremism and destabilizing the region, accusations denied by Qatar.

Qatar has for years played as a mediator and power broker for regional disputes. The gas-rich country backed the Muslim Brotherhood, interacted with Iran, and held channels with Hamas and extremist groups like al-Qaida, a policy that sometimes angered its neighbor but was generally accepted by the Arab world and its western allies.

Although Qatar stood firmly with Saudi Arabia on major regional issues, such as the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, the two countries differed on stance with Iran, and were competing for the leading role in the Arab world.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain recalled ambassadors to Qatar, accusing it of endangering security and stability in the GCC countries. Relations between Qatar and other Gulf countries eased later after mediation efforts.

However, Qatar’s official news agency posted an alleged speech of Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani at a military graduation ceremony last month, which described Hamas as “the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people,” and called Iran “a big power in the stabilization of the region.”

Doha later denied the speech, saying the agency was hacked and posted false statements.

Qatar has been interacted with Iran for a long time and ignored the anti-Iran alliance after U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh, and “finally it pays the price for its shaky foreign policy,” said Nurhan Al-Sheikh, a professor of political science at Cairo University.

DIVIDED GCC

Established in 1981, the GCC comprising six rich Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar, with its headquarters in the Saudi capital of Riyadh.

As traditional powers like Egypt and Syria were dragged into turmoil and civil war in 2011, and Iraq struggled with reforms after the U.S. invasion in 2003, the GCC in fact dominated regional affairs involving Arab countries in recent years and rallied against Iran in Yemen and Syria.

Observers said in the past six years, Qatar has been competing with Saudi Arabia for the leading role in the Arab world.

Qatar hopes that it could become a broker between the Gulf countries and Iran, advocating improved relations with Tehran, which is resented by Saudi Arabia, said Sun Degang, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University.

It also supported the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization with broad influence in several countries. Its candidate Mohamed Morsi won Egypt’s presidential election in 2012 but was toppled by the Egyptian military backed by Saudi Arabia one year later. The Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain in 2015, but its leaders still take shelter in Qatar.

With the world’s third largest natural gas reserves, Qatar hopes to compete with Saudi Arabia to assume the leading role on regional issues, which sparks dispute with its neighbor, Sun said.

Observers said this diplomatic crisis will weaken the GCC’s influence and foreign countries may take the advantage to further intervene in the Arab world’s affairs as a result.

SPILLED CRISIS

After announcement of severing ties with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain on Monday demanded Qatari nationals leave their countries in 48 hours and closed airspace and ports to Qatar.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia also closed its borders with Qatar, effectively blocking food and other exports to its neighbor.

Observers said those moves almost equal to comprehensive sanctions which may put huge pressure on Qatar.

If Qatar maintains its relations with Iran, the United States is likely to withdraw its troops in the country, Nurhan Al-Sheikh said, adding that Qatar, with a population of only 300,000 and vulnerable industries, cannot stand to the isolation of other Arab countries.

Qatar hosts the largest U.S. airbase in the region, which is crucial to its national defense.

Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani on Tuesday called for “a dialogue of openness and honesty” to resolve the crisis, and denied accusations of supporting extremism.

On Monday, Qatar was ejected from the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. And on the same day, the Shiite Houthi group, which with support of Iran has been fighting a war against the coalition since March 2015, denied access to a UN envoy in charge of mediating efforts to the Yemeni capital of Sanaa.

The GCC split will further strengthen Iran’s role in the region, and intensify the political struggle in Iraq and Syria as world powers are battling for a leading role in reshaping the political arrangement after the Islamic State was defeated, said Yu Guoqing, a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Science.

No one can ignore the role and influence of the alliance of Russia and Iran in post-IS era in Syria and Iraq, and now more time is needed to observe how the alliance of Saudi Arabia and the United States can recover from this crisis, Yu said.